Lunch conversation yesterday with a prominent Bay Area commercial broker and two well connected move coordinators was centered around the question of when is the recovery going to arrive?
We all had various theories and hypothesis, with the outside date being 2012 and the inside date (mine) being the 2nd half of this year. Here is my thinking:
1) More recent (and consistent) economic good news versus bad news. The latest good news was released today from The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI). The ETI rose in February for the sixth consecutive month...the Index is growing at the fastest rate since 1994. The report outlined that the ETI increase was driven by positive contributions from four out of eight components of the survey: Number of Temporary Employees, Job Openings, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. This is actual job creation, not simply slowing of job losses.
2) We have an election in November. Whether you are a Red Stater or a Blue Stater, the fact is that politicians have a strong sense of self-preservation. The last time I checked, high unemployment does not equate to reelection, so my forecast is for more shows of "bipartisanship" (like the recent passage of the jobs bill through the Senate) to get the economy moving by election time.
There you go - you heard it here first...
We all had various theories and hypothesis, with the outside date being 2012 and the inside date (mine) being the 2nd half of this year. Here is my thinking:
1) More recent (and consistent) economic good news versus bad news. The latest good news was released today from The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI). The ETI rose in February for the sixth consecutive month...the Index is growing at the fastest rate since 1994. The report outlined that the ETI increase was driven by positive contributions from four out of eight components of the survey: Number of Temporary Employees, Job Openings, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. This is actual job creation, not simply slowing of job losses.
2) We have an election in November. Whether you are a Red Stater or a Blue Stater, the fact is that politicians have a strong sense of self-preservation. The last time I checked, high unemployment does not equate to reelection, so my forecast is for more shows of "bipartisanship" (like the recent passage of the jobs bill through the Senate) to get the economy moving by election time.
There you go - you heard it here first...
