CEO Confidence Down - BUT Hiring to Pickup

CEO confidence as measured by the Conference Board CEO Survey declined from 64 in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 62 for the first quarter of 2010. A reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses.

CEOs also indicated uncertainty about the future, with 52% of business leaders expecting economic conditions to improve over the next 6 months, down from 58% last quarter. On the bright side: More than 30% of CEOs expect an increase in employment levels in their industry, up from less than 3% a year ago.

Also from the Conference Board; the Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose in March for a seventh consecutive month. The index is now at 94.4, up from February's 93.7. The index is up 5.5% versus a year ago, and over the past three months, all eight components of the index have been improving.

The ETI measures:
•Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)

•Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
•Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
•Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
•Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
•Job Openings (BLS)
•Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
•Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Dad Says..."It's loosening up a bit..."

OK, take note: I'm officially calling the industry bottom as of today; March 24,2010. Why today... a couple of reasons:

• ABI Moves Positive: Following a drop of nearly three points, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) nudged up almost two points in February. “We continue to hear that funding dedicated for construction projects in the stimulus package has not yet been awarded, resulting in a bottleneck of potential projects that could help jumpstart the economy,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA.
• House Passes More Jobs Creation Legislation: The bill would would lift all capital gains tax on small-business stock bought before 2012 and expand a tax deduction for business start-up costs. The measure also would expand subsidies for state and local construction bonds which has already funded $78 billion in state and local construction projects.
• My Dad... To say my father has been a perma-bear over the past 12 months would be a huge understatement -- TODAY, for the first time in over a year, my father stated "it feels like things are loosening up a bit..."

I'll spare everyone the crass joke that my Trader friends make about people who pick bottoms, but I'll stick my neck out and drop the marker in the sand that today is the day things start turning up.

More Positive Economic News...

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), increased .01 percent in February, following a .03 percent gain in January, and a 1.2 percent rise in December, indicating a slow but steady path towards a summer recovery.

Courtesy of The Conference Board

"The LEI for the U.S. has risen rapidly for almost a year" said Atamon Ozyildirim, Economist at the Conference Board. Mr. Ozyildirim continued, "As the economy moves from recovery into the early phases of an expansion, the leading economic index points to moderately improving...conditions for the near term."

I haven't heard the phase "expansion" in a couple of years... Happy Friday!